So.. pig flu.

Cases as at date (based on wikipedia)
361 deaths / 76k cases. Mortality = 0.4% (based on reported figures)
Mortality of any normal common seasonal flu = 0.05% . So it means 8 times more likely to die.

So actually, how lethal it is? 1/250 die. Hmm. Malaysian death rates on average is 5/1,000? Which is 1/200. (of the entire m'sian population) So actually, you're more likely to die of any other reason, than pig flu. This fear of pig flu is honestly overblown.

So, is it a pandemic? A global disaster that warrants quarantine? Er.. Japan did the smart thing. No. If you actually look at it, what's the point.

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First, we question to accuracy of data. It's very easy for pig flu to be mistaken as any other type of flu. After all, symptoms are similar to various other types of flu. So likelihood that actual reported cases is MUCH MUCH higher, is very high. On a longshot I'd dare say given m'sian healthcare system, mortality is much lower, at 0.1%. Why? M'sians are so used to flu that I think we have higher natural immunity.

2nd. Most reported deaths have underlying health concerns which increase the impact of any new flu. Heck, if I had cancer and I just gone through chemo, even a fever would kill me anyway, so yeah.. deaths is actually overstated. (possibility of hidden deaths disclosed as common flu is also there, but then, flu kills anyway)

3rd. For a flu to be a plague, in my opinion, it needs to fit a few criteria.
a) Should have a longer incubation period during which it can infect more people without showing symptoms.
b) Death should be long and drawn out, to further increase likelihood of infection to others.
c) Mortality should of course, be high.

AH1N1, fails at a) and c). therefore, it's not really that bad.
We're more likely to get killed walking next to Brickfields at night than die of H1N1, so..

Business as usual.
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Saturday, June 20, 2009

Amputated exhaustion

Week. Busy.
Me. Tired.
Work. Starting.
Time. Not enough.
People. Fun!
Place. Noisy.

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Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Travel Home

Back when I was in Seremban

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I took the train at 8, was told it's 2 hours to home. Sat awaiting at the last station, the night wind caressing my tired face with it's cool, after-rain breeze. The sky's a shade of pale blue, relaxed and calling out to me, that the time to rest is near. Yet it is not the time for me to slip into it.

There were few others awaiting here, and yet perhaps it is just me, but it felt like we were all waiting for something that may never come. I shook my head a little, trying to wean out the quiet, reflective part of me, who often has flooded my mind with thoughts I shouldn't have. Ah, but here, at this place, it is to little avail. There's a sense of helplessness as we wait, our fate driven by something beyond our command or control. To that part of me who thrives on silence around me, it has me all to itself, my attention undivided.

I try, to shake it off a little, knowing the cyclical bursts of unnecessary emotions such things bring. Some, like the couple sitting next to me, they seemed ignorant, drowned in the presence of each others' company. Ah, the bliss of young love. And damn, I feel old.

To the far side, a young man, impatient, fidgety as he waits, taking occasional glances at the hanging rustic clock that must've been there for the longest time.

Hmm. What would they think of me when they look at me at the station. Ah. I don't know yet. How would I want them to look at me?

8.05pm. The train came, there's not many people. Most seats are empty, leaving my the rare liberty of picking where to sit in a normally crowded piece of machinery. Who'd knew.

All the seats are by the window, and instinctively I try to stare out, hoping to see something, but no. A train is a like a cocoon in itself, oblivious to things outside. I couldn't quite identify why, but it occurred to me that I might actually like living like this, shut out from change, forever living the husk of a life, where my choices are not my own, but decided by a higher power. Hmm.. For all that talk of ambition, it's not actually the core element of me.

Higher powers. Control. Some people want to control their lives, but like the train schedule, it's not something we have power over. Work is a tempering tool, it soften out the hard edges of a person, as he has to deal with others who may often be just as harsh. I think every person out there is like a rock. Our edges are softened by constant contact with others. Some break because they are too fragile. Some, don't change, but change others.

8.50pm. I was nearing the main part of KL. The city skyline is sublime behind mildly tinted windows, towering above the nearby passing houses, shanty shacks of the impoverished, as if two worlds co-existed.

9.05pm. KL Sentral. Strange but I felt more relaxed on the empty train. Switched trains to get on the train towards Klang. It's a bit more crowded on this train, most of it's passengers are of the darker skin, and expectedly, a slightly rowdier crowd.

10pm. Home. Travelling alone is actually, quite a thought inspiring activity. Maybe I should do it more often.

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